Why Dry Places Are Getting Even Drier

Evapotranspiration rises off the forest in the mountains of Ren'ai Township, Taiwan. Credit: Erica Gies
Evapotranspiration rises off the forest in the mountains of Ren’ai Township, Taiwan. Credit: Erica Gies

And What Nature Is Trying to Tell Us

Not long ago, wildfires tore through Los Angeles in the middle of winter. That caught a lot of people off guard. Winter fires used to be rare. But meteorologists weren’t surprised. They had already seen signs: unusually dry air, low humidity, and the perfect conditions for flames to spread.

With climate change, this “fire weather” is happening more often — not just in California, but in places like Canada, southern Europe, and the U.S. Southeast. Here’s the mystery: even though the world is getting warmer, some dry places aren’t getting more humid — they’re getting drier. So where is all the moisture going?

The Science Behind Moisture and Warming

Scientists know that warmer air can hold more water. It’s a basic rule called the Clausius–Clapeyron relationship, which says that for every 1°C (1.8°F) of warming, the atmosphere can hold about 7% more moisture.

Climate models — the computer programs scientists use to predict the future — say we should see more moisture in the air everywhere as the world warms. And that’s exactly what’s been happening in some places. For example, intense floods in Pakistan, Germany, and New York City were made worse by extra moisture in the air.

But over drylands — places like the U.S. Southwest, parts of Africa, and Australia — the models seem to be wrong. Instead of more moisture, the air is staying just as dry… or getting drier.

Missing Moisture: What’s Going Wrong?

Atmospheric physicist Isla Simpson and her team noticed this odd pattern by studying 40 years of weather data. In places that were already dry, humidity wasn’t going up. In some cases, like the American Southwest, it was going down.

The big question is: Why?

One possible answer is that plants and soil aren’t giving off as much water vapor as the models expect. Normally, plants “sweat” through tiny pores in their leaves, releasing moisture into the air — a process called transpiration. Soil also releases water. But under stress — like heat, drought, or damage — this natural system seems to slow down.

And here’s the twist: most climate models don’t fully account for the biology of plants and soil. They focus more on oceans, ice, and the atmosphere, and less on the living systems that also affect the climate.

Why Plants and Soil Matter

It turns out that plants and soil do much more than just sit there. They help regulate temperature and rain patterns. When plants release moisture, the moister:

  • Cools the air (like sweat on skin)
  • Helps clouds form
  • Helps spread rain farther inland

Healthy soil also plays a major role:

  • It holds water like a sponge
  • It supports fungi and bacteria that help form rain clouds
  • It slows down water runoff, keeping landscapes cooler and wetter

But when ecosystems are damaged, this water-holding system breaks down. The land dries out, gets hotter, and becomes more prone to droughts and fires.

How Humans Made It Worse

You might wonder: how did this happen on such a large scale?

The answer lies in how much we’ve changed the land:

  • 75% of the Earth’s land has been severely altered by human activity (IPBES, 2019)
  • Grasslands and savannas are overgrazed
  • Wetlands are drained
  • Forests are logged and replaced with tree farms
  • Industrial farming strips soil of life and nutrients

Even when we replant trees, they’re often monocultures (just one species), which don’t support the same soil health or moisture processes as natural forests. These changes might look green from space, but they don’t function the same way.

What We Can Do About It

When it comes to tackling climate change, we often hear about personal habits such driving less, eating differently, using less energy. While these actions matter, the biggest changes come from policies and systems. That’s why the most important thing we can do is use our voices and our votes.

Elect Leaders Who Protect Nature

  • Support candidates who prioritize ecosystem protection, climate resilience, and land stewardship
  • Ask hard questions: Will you protect native forests? Will you fund soil and water restoration?
  • Vote in local, state, and national elections. These decisions directly impact land use and climate outcomes

Hold Politicians Accountable

  • Follow up after elections by tracking what your representatives are doing for the environment
  • Attend town halls, write to your lawmakers, and support environmental advocacy groups
  • Push for science-based policies that restore biodiversity, water systems, and climate stability

When leaders understand that voters care about land and water — not just carbon — they’re more likely to act. Restoring ecosystems isn’t just good science, it’s good politics.

Restore Natural Ecosystems

  • Let native forests regrow instead of planting single-species trees
  • Support healthy grasslands with better grazing practices
  • Protect wetlands and water sources

Care for the Soil

  • Reduce tilling and chemical use
  • Encourage farming methods that boost soil life
  • Plant cover crops that help the land retain moisture

Think Local and Global

  • Support community land stewards and Indigenous practices
  • Include land care in climate solutions, alongside reducing carbon emissions

Restoring ecosystems brings powerful benefits: it can increase local rainfall, cool surrounding areas, reduce the risk of fires and droughts, and support healthier biodiversity. These natural systems do more than sustain wildlife — they help protect our communities too.

Summing Up

Climate change isn’t just about carbon dioxide — it’s also about water, life, and how we care for the land. When dry places get even drier, it’s a sign that something’s out of balance.

By listening to nature and recognizing the role of plants, soil, and ecosystems, we can develop better climate models, smarter solutions, and a safer future. As the science shows, protecting living systems doesn’t just help animals and plants. It helps us too.

Let’s care for the land as part of how we care for the climate.


Source: Gies, E. (2025, June 20). Climate science and the case of the missing moisture. Nature Water, 3, 634–637. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44221-025-00455-2

A double whammy: Wildfire debris pollutes drinking water

(Photo credit: U.S. Department of Agriculture / CC BY 2.0)
Credit: U.S. Department of Agriculture / CC BY 2.0

Wildfires, which have intensified with climate change, litter the ground with debris that can contaminate drinking water supplies after a heavy rain.

By Alex Urquhart and Tanya Petach, Yale Climate Connections (CC BY-NC-ND 2.5)

The largest wildfire in New Mexico’s state history burned over 300,000 acres in the summer of 2022 and came within a mile of the town of Las Vegas. The flames ultimately spared the town of 13,000, but months later, ash and soot left by the Calf Canyon/Hermits Peak wildfire fouled drinking water there when monsoon rains blanketed the region, paradoxically slamming Las Vegas with both flooding and a municipal water shortage.

Four people drowned in flash floods, and residents were forced to erect sandbag barriers to protect their houses. Meanwhile, the inundation overwhelmed the town’s water filtration system with ash contamination, forcing mandatory restrictions to cut water consumption by about two-thirds. Swimming pools went empty, and restaurants resorted to disposable dishes and utensils to cut back on dishwashing.

In September, New Mexico spent $2 million to rapidly install a temporary pre-treatment system. It is still propping up the overstrained filtration system while the town applies for federal funds for a permanent water treatment facility that the mayor estimates could cost as much as $100–200 million.

Climate change is worsening wildfires

Around the world, more extreme wildfires have become a shocking signal that the effects of climate change are here. Wildfires are now more common and more destructive, making their damage more expensive.

Climate models have predicted this worsening trend for years and suggest it will continue as long spells of hot and dry weather become more common. In California, 12 of the 20 largest fires since 1932 occurred in the last five years. In the Mediterranean, the frequency of so-called “fire weather”—hot and dry weather that leads to large wildfires—is projected to increase by up to 30% by the end of the century.

Toxic runoff dirties drinking water

Although the dramatic violence of wildfires attracts intense media coverage, long-term impacts on water quality have gone largely unreported. The problem is alarming in the U.S. West, which has wrestled with regional water shortages for years. Researchers are finding that heavy rains in areas affected by wildfires can contaminate watersheds and overwhelm municipal drinking water systems. Municipalities must often pay astronomical costs to augment, repair, or replace entire water distribution systems. With risks growing, researchers say at-risk areas must plan ahead to act quickly and communicate clearly about water issues to fire-hit residents.

Wildfires lead to increased flooding and sediment erosion into rivers because a healthy forest is no longer there to slow stormwater runoff and increase water absorption. During storms, ash from the wildfire will be carried unchecked directly into streams, where it can easily flow to a municipal water intake and overwhelm treatment plants, leading to water shortages or even total failure of municipal water systems.

Following the Rocky and Wragg fires in California, researchers studying the affected watersheds recorded drastic increases in dissolved organic carbon, dissolved organic nitrogen and ammonium. It took over a year for these levels to return to normal.

When fires burn through developed areas, toxic runoff is created from the destruction of building materials, electronics, appliances, and vehicles. Rain transports these dangerous chemicals into groundwater, contaminating private wells and municipal systems. This can force months of boil water advisories, or even do not drink/do not boil orders, where drinking water must be brought in from other areas.

Even the water distribution system itself can become a source of contamination. Following the Tubbs Fire and the Camp Fire in California, both of which burned through developed areas, researchers found that municipal drinking water exceeded exposure limits for volatile organic compounds such as benzene. The source of this contamination may have been fire damage to plastic pipes and other synthetic components of the distribution system. With so many potential sources and causes of contamination, it is challenging for public officials to define an appropriate response. This has led to conflicting or variable recommendations in the aftermath of a fire, damaging public trust in official guidance.

Can we build fire-resilient water systems?

As wildfires worsen globally, water quality problems will affect millions of people who live in threatened watersheds. In addition to cutting planet-heating emissions, specific solutions are needed to protect public health and safety from the inevitable fires to come.

Researchers who studied the aftermath of the Tubbs and Camp Fire have called for standardized and streamlined water quality monitoring following wildfires. They recommend a “do not use” order following any wildfire that burns through developed areas. Other recommendations include updated building codes to limit the spread of contaminated water within damaged distribution systems.

Clear health and safety guidance in the aftermath of a fire is crucial. In the months following the Camp Fire, surveys of 233 households within the affected community showed 54% had some level of anxiety about water contamination, and 85% were seeking alternative water sources. The public needed clear recommendations about drinking water safety, including how to conduct at-home testing. Following a fire, clear and regular communication may be required for months or years, depending on the scope of contamination.

Municipalities may also identify standard operating procedures and fire response policies before disaster strikes. A new study examining the 2021 Marshall fire in Colorado outlined potential mitigation procedures that municipalities could implement, from emergency planning to post-fire flushing protocols.

“There are very simple straightforward actions that municipalities can take today to prevent wide-scale water distribution system contamination,” said Andrew Whelton, a lead author of the study. For example: “isolating your water distribution center into zones so that if one part of the system is damaged it doesn’t spread to the other parts of the system.”

Having a plan in place will reduce confusion and increase trust and efficiency in the wildfire response, recent research suggests. One vital consideration is the level of water contamination that constitutes acceptable or unacceptable health risks.

“There are certain conditions that would indicate that your water is lightly contaminated and you should not use it,” Whelton said. “The Marshall Fire case study identifies those conditions, and another study identifies conditions of contamination in private wells. Your water can be chemically contaminated after a fire, and you have to do testing to determine if it is safe or not.”

Understanding these thresholds will lend clarity and speed to post-fire decision-making. And with climate change accelerating, the need for standardized practices that will educate the public about water safety and ensure access to clean water will only grow.

Alex Urquhartis the research and modeling manager at Energy Innovation Policy and Technology LLC® and Tanya Petachis the Climate Science Fellow at the Aspen Global Change Institute. Both organizations are Yale Climate Connections content-sharing partners.

*This post was updated Feb. 3, 2023, to reflect the correct spelling of Andrew Whelton’s name.

Wildfires could release radioactive particles from nuclear sites

Internationally recognized symbol. Warning sign of Ionizing Radiation. Created by Cary Bass using Adobe Illustrator on January 19, 2006.
Internationally recognized symbol. Warning sign of Ionizing Radiation. Created by Cary Bass.

And global warming is making wildfires more frequent and intense.

By YCC Team, Yale Climate Connections (CC BY-NC-ND 2.5)

Nuclear disasters can release widespread, dangerous radioactive fallout. Research facilities and nuclear weapons tests can also leave behind varying levels of radioactive particles in soil and plants.

Christine Eriksen of ETH Zürich warns that at some sites, wildfires could later release those particles into the air.

“Locally, in the area of the fire and where the smoke travels to, the particles will travel with that,” Eriksen says.

She says global warming and changing land use are increasing the threat of wildfires near many nuclear sites.

“We’re seeing more wildfires in areas that are either bordering onto or actually are contaminated areas,” she says.

That includes land near Los Alamos National Lab in New Mexico and other sites around the world.

She says some of these areas have a lot of vegetation ready to burn because it’s dangerous to work in contaminated areas cutting grass or trimming trees.

Eriksen says more research is needed to understand how much radioactive material is released during fires, how far it travels, and how best to protect those who are exposed to the smoke, so a nuclear event of the past will not endanger more people in the future.

Reporting credit: Sarah Kennedy/ChavoBart Digital Media